Well, here we go again. The Storm Prediction Center has again outlined a good portion of Iowa in a risk for severe weather on Saturday. We don’t have to think too far back to remember the last time this happened and failed to materialize.
In this case, we’ll see what happens. Once again, a warm front will set up shop somewhere in the upper Midwest. That’s where thunderstorms are expected to fire up Saturday afternoon. If this happens, the threat does exist for all modes of severe weather.
As the system pushes through, we can expect more chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center notes a lot of differences in the model runs for the reason why they are not committing to any area on Sunday. Me personally? I would say the same for Saturday as well.
Some models indicate moderate rain overnight on Friday in northern portions of the state. This will also bear watching. The GFS gives hope to Saturday and Sunday for a chase, but again, there’s little agreement between models and not a lot of confidence in their current solutions.
Overall, this weekend could turn into another heavy rain event somewhere. That somewhere might not even be Iowa if the front fails to push north out of Missouri. Still plenty of time before we reach the weekend so all we can do now is hope for some better agreements among the models and keep our eye on it.