Another Day, Another Moderate Risk

untitledThere are a number of questions surrounding Friday’s severe weather threat.  But that’s a welcome sight for me.  Thursday’s threat was so great, the potential for tornadic supercells so certain that, of course, nothing happened.

So here we are on Friday now, another moderate risk for much of eastern Iowa and a lot of questions.

Here’s the breakdown, beginning with the first problem, the early morning.  Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in Nebraska and central Iowa.  Whether these storms ever get their act together remains to be seen.  At some point in the morning hours we could see strong to marginally severe storms rolling through eastern Iowa.  Of course this will have a huge impact on what could come later in the day.

As we learned on Thursday, caps can sometimes  be stronger than advertised.  All models and forecasters believed the warm front would easily break the cap.  That turned out to be wrong.  Another cap will likely set up over eastern Iowa on Friday.  This time, the triple point will come into play.  Whether it has the energy to break the cap remains to be seen.

All in all another potentially dangerous severe weather day.  Depending on the level of instability and capping in the atmosphere, the all or nothing approach appears in tact.  With work out of the way early I  hope to catch some mid morning sleep after I make some upgrades to some of our equipment.  As always we’ll provide updates whenever we can if the weather warrants.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: