From: Nick Weig
After a weekend of cool but pleasant weather, another round of severe weather could return by Wednesday. Now four days out, meteorologically speaking, the Storm Prediction Center already has much of eastern Iowa in a risk.
Any further out than three days, the SPC does not differentiate between slight, moderate and high risk, only a risk. A dynamic system will enter the region by Tuesday night with a frontal passage Wednesday evening.
Now we won’t be all that warm on Wednesday, shear will be a big factor in this storm system. That means any storms which are able to tap into what instability we have could very easily develop into a tornado producing supercell.
The final and most important factor besides timing and placement of the system will be Tuesday night’s activity. A round of severe weather will likely fire off that day to our west. How the leftovers carry into our area Wednesday morning will greatly impact instability and overall setup for severe weather later in the day.
Still 72 hours away, there is plenty of time to monitor this storm. We will continue to do so, and provide updates on what to expect here and on our facebook fan page. There are also indication of a major severe weather event somewhere in the upper midwest for this weekend. But that is much too far to begin sounding the alarm and will focus on the first system for now. The best advice is to always stay tuned. The next 2-3 weeks are the most active in the midwest for tornadoes and we fully expect an outbreak or two somewhere in the coming days.