This is the moment that storm chasers in the area have been waiting some time for. Before we get to this weekend’s threat I want to again point out that our hearts and prayers are with those affected by the devastating tornadoes in Texas. There are a number of groups taking donations, but the best is almost always the American Red Cross.
Now, on to the threat at hand. A storm system will spend several days across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, producing a significant severe weather threat across the region for several days.
Beginning with Saturday. As you can see above, the target area is focused on the Dakotas and Nebraska. This is where explosive thunderstorm development is expected and could stretch into Iowa during the overnight hours. As this event gets closer we will be monitoring the potential for an overnight severe weather event, especially across western Iowa. Our chase team will head west on Friday tracking the tornado threat in the Dakotas. As always, you can join the chase by logging onto http://stormscapelive.tv
During the early rounds of this event, a warm front will shoot north of Iowa, bringing a moist and unstable air mass behind it. All of the ingredients should be in place for explosive severe thunderstorm development across Iowa on Sunday and Monday.
So what are some of the things to watch out for? First of all, recovery. If Iowa experiences overnight storms heading into Saturday or Sunday or Monday, that would greatly impact the following day’s severe weather risk. But, if the atmosphere can recover the stage would be set. Much of the state faces the threat of tornadoes Sunday afternoon and evening. Again, if the atmosphere can recover Monday afternoon, an additional round of severe weather is possible on Monday.
To put it simple, ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with any severe thunderstorm that develops over the weekend. Strong winds, very large hail and multiple tornadoes are all possible.
This is the first outbreak of the season for this region, and I urge EVERYONE to take this very seriously. You can track all our updates here on iowachase.com or follow our chase team on Facebook.