A Growing Risk, But Still Marginal

Severe Weather Risk for Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Severe Weather Risk for Wednesday, May 6, 2009

After a long break without any severe weather, the threat for strong thunderstorms is back in the forecast.  The Storm Prediction Center blanketed all of eastern Iowa in a slight risk for severe weather.

Overall, the risk is small.  Main threats appear to be large hail (1″ or greater in diameter) and strong, damaging winds.  Currently the tornado threat is small.  Storms are expected to fire Wednesday afternoon as a frontal system moves through.  Storms should move from northwest to southeast.  As for how organized the storms will be remains to be seen.

Much will depend on the heating of the day.  With highs forecast to approach the 70 degree mark, there should be enough instability in the atmosphere to trigger storms.  What happens from there is a tough call.  As always we will continue to monitor the situation and will prepare an update in the early morning hours as the the next updated outlook comes out at 6Z Wednesday (1:00am).

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