A cold December start, Seasonal for the week ahead.

NCEP NAM 4 km 2 Meter Temperature

This evening into Monday morning, the state of Iowa will play host to some of the coolest temps and wind chills we have seen so far this fall. Below is a graphic of the NAM model’s temperatures for 9 AM moday morning. 

When you combine those temps with winds from the NW at 20-30 mph, the wind chills will likely be dropping in to the -25° to -30° range, making for a bitterly cold morning.  Make sure to bundle up, as with wind chills in that range can cause frostbite to exposed skin within 10 minutes.

This cold spell won’t last too long, however, as temperatures on Tuesday’s model runs are showing temps moderating to back near the 30° mark, at least for those along and south of I-80.  Below is the temp map for Tuesday at around 2PM, which shows a large area of temps in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. 

While this might not be the 40 and 50° temps that we have seen over the past couple of days, it is a marked improvement over the temps on Sunday night and Monday.

 

As for the rest of the week, most of the state looks to remain seasonal in temps, with only a few small chances for precipitation.  Highs in the southern parts of the state Wednesday through Friday should be in the mid to upper 30’s, with lows in the upper teens.  Northern parts of the state should see highs in the upper 20’s and low 30’s Wednesday through Friday, with lows between 5° and 15° depending on how far west you are, with lows being warmer in the western part of the state.

Our only chances for precipitation at this time appear to be a series of quick moving Alberta Clipper lows that will move through the region (mostly to our north) through Thursday.  Chances appear to be lower than 30% for snow from any of the quick moving systems in any one area over the entire 5 day stretch, with only NE Iowa having a 40% chance at accumulating flurries around dusk on Monday.  There are few visuals for this, as the probabilities are so low that most models are not even picking up on the isolated flurries. Below is one model’s depiction of flurries around 5 PM Monday evening:

 

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