It’s not much, but for those struggling to fight back flood waters in central Iowa today, they’ll take every dry second they can get. With the exception of a random pop up thunderstorm, most of the state should stay dry today and tonight. That’s the good news. The bad news is the heat and humidity are going no where and more storms will arrive by Thursday Night.
To the left is the risk area for severe weather on Thursday. You can see the bulk of the threat lies north of Iowa, but this bears watching once again. The biggest concern is an ongoing threat for severe weather after sunset that would stretch into Iowa, followed by another threat for heavy rainfall. There’s no way of telling where that heavy rain would fall, but it’s safe to say most of the state does not need anymore rain for some time.
The only good news is this could be the beginning of the end. Thursday severe weather is expected to begin in the Dakotas, where a cold front will begin pushing through the Upper Midwest. The bad news is it won’t move all that fast. Although reaching western Iowa by Thursday Night, the front may not clear the state until Saturday Morning. This means as long as the frontal boundary is lingering in the area, severe storms and the heavy rain that comes with them remain possible.
To the right is the risk area already drawn up for Friday. You can see a large portion of the state under the gun as the cold front makes its way across Iowa. This is still quite a ways out and it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact risks. For now we’ll keep our focus on the threats for Thursday Night. We’ll have more on that threat tomorrow morning and will monitor any changes in the current thinking later this afternoon and tonight.