This morning, the Storm Prediction Center had finely turned their moderate risk area for portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This is the area where the first development is expected later this afternoon. When that happens, explosive development is expected that will lead to very large hail, strong winds and a few tornadoes. You can see the area the SPC is highlighting with their moderate risk in the graphic to the left.
At this time it appears storms should begin to develop sometime after 3:00pm this afternoon. These storms should quickly turn severe. At first, these isolated supercells will need to be monitored for tornadic potential. These first storms will also bring the best chance for VERY large hail with them as well.
There are some doubts as to whether storms can develop as early as 3:00pm. I would feel more confident in saying storms might not fire until closer to 5:00pm, but conditions can change quickly and once they do there’s no going back.
In the graphic to the right you can see the tornado risk for western Iowa is pretty substantial. This tornado risk could last well into the evening hours, even after sunset. Eventually as storms become more widespread a large scale damaging wind threat may take shape as the storms roll across Iowa. This threat, much like Sunday night into this morning, could last well into sunrise on Tuesday.
All in all this has the potential of being a very long day for many here in Iowa. We are monitoring the latest trends and may deploy a storm chase team later today to western Iowa. We’ll bring you the latest and if we are unable to conduct a full live chat this evening, we’ll still bring you the latest watches and warnings in real time right here on our website.