3:00PM UPDATE: Tornado Threat Decreases, Severe Threat Remains

day1probotlk_2000_tornLittle change to ongoing thinking for today’s severe weather threat.  However, as you can see in the graphic to the left, the threat for tornadoes has eased somewhat.  A general 2% risk is all that exists now over Iowa.  An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but the greatest threat today should come in the form of strong damaging winds.

The greatest risk for severe weather still exists over central and western Iowa.  day1probotlk_2000_windYou can see in the graphic to the right the threat for damaging wind reports are greatest in this area.  Storms may reach portions of eastern Iowa later tonight, some of which might still produce severe weather.  At this hour, some thunderstorms are taking shape in parts of northwest Iowa.  It’s expected these storms will struggle to produce severe weather until better dynamics set up closer to sunset. 

Over Iowa, this could be a long duration severe weather event as storms are expected to fire in western Iowa and make their way east ahead of a cold front that should push through the state by sometime tomorrow morning.

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