Thunderstorms are expected to develop later today/tonight especially across parts of western Iowa. You can see the risk area has once again changed dramatically this morning as confidence grows that strong thunderstorms will take shape across much of Iowa.
To the left you can see the new risk area posted late this morning by the Storm Prediction Center. Although conditions are not very favorable for a major severe weather outbreak, there should be a good setup for large hail to take shape, especially over parts of western Iowa.
We will have to monitor whether this threat will last well into the evening/overnight hours as storms push across the state. To the right you can see the hail risk currently forecast for Iowa. You can also see the hatched out area in black at greatest risk or very large hail, possibly larger than 2” in diameter.
Overall threats for tornadoes and strong damaging winds are very low. The storm system responsible for this threat is not going anywhere just yet. That means more chances of storms for Iowa beyond tonight. More on that later this afternoon.