11:30 UPDATE: Expected Severe WX Outbreak Still on Track

day1otlk_1630There is little change in today’s thinking of a major severe weather outbreak across southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin and northeast Iowa.  Storms are still expected to develop later this afternoon, after a round of strong storms this morning mainly to the north of Iowa.  The storms follow oppressive that’s plagued Iowa this morning and will continue into the afternoon. 

As for this afternoon’s storms, it all depends on when/if an atmospheric cap will break sometime between 3 and 6pm today.  If that happens, explosive thunderstorm development is expected in northern Iowa, eventually spreading further south into the state. 

day1probotlk_1630_tornThe greatest risk for tornadoes lies in northeast Iowa where strong, long track twisters could develop if any rogue supercells break away from the overall complex.  You can see the risk probabilities for tornadoes today in the graphic to the right.  Of important notice is the upgrade in risk for a large part of Iowa, not at 5% instead of 2%.  This is something that will  have to be closely monitored.  If storms can fire all along the cold front in Iowa, we could see a tornado outbreak here in the state.

We are just about to hit the road for a quick debrief in Waterloo then determine where to set up shop.  Anywhere between Mason City and Waverly sounds like a good place at this time, but we’ll have to adjust as the conditions warrant. 

We’ll continue to provide live coverage, thanks to a somewhat useful mobile web connection.  In the event we are unable to transmit any data to the live chat, a twitter feed to the right of this post will provide you with all the crucial information regarding warnings, damage and watches.

Thanks for following us and we hope you stay safe during today’s severe weather event.

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